⭐ 明年真的可以發大財嗎？⭐
本院經濟所發布2019年臺灣經濟情勢預測結果：
我國出口需求及消費動能相對減弱，第三季實質GDP年成長率僅達2.27%，預期2018年經濟成長率將微幅調降為2.64%。展望2019年，全球經濟前景仍因貿易戰紛擾與中國需求放緩，加以美國減稅政策效應遞減，以及金融情勢轉趨緊縮，全球經濟成長動能將有所趨緩。
預估2019年實質經濟成長率為2.45%📊
💰物價：1至10月的消費者物價指數(CPI)較去年同期成長1.60%，核心消費者物價指數於相同期間則為1.34%，顯示物價仍相對穩定。
💱貨幣供給：10月雖受股災衝擊而使國內資金需求下滑，然累計前10個月M1B及M2年增率分別為5.30%及3.60%，顯示市場資金仍呈適度寬鬆。
👥勞動市場：今年前10個月之平均失業率為3.71%，顯示就業情況良好，情勢穩定。
國際情勢不明的情況下，我國政府積極推動重大公共工程建設、促進投資及強化內需產業發展等擴張性財政政策之實質效果，將成為臺灣經濟成長動能是否延續的重要關鍵。
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Due to the heating up of China-U.S. trade conflict and more dramatic fluctuations in international financial markets, the pace of expansion in the global economy has shown instability and the downside risk is gradually getting realized, suppressing the growth momentum. Whist the U.S. economic performance is strong, growth of other major advanced economies such as Europe and Japan are not as strong as anticipated.
The slowdown in China's economic growth partly due to the trade war is resulting in weak demand in both export and domestic markets. As for Taiwan, the real GDP grew by 2.27% (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2018 as consumption weakened and export markets were affected adversely by the trade war.
Therefore, the revised estimate of economic growth rate in 2018 is 2.64%. Looking forward to 2019, the global economic outlook is still suffering from the risk of trade wars, slowdown in China's demand, diminishing effects of the U.S. tax cuts and a tightening in financial markets, implying the global growth momentum will continue to slow. We expect the real GDP growth of 2.45% in 2019.
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中文新聞稿：https://www.sinica.edu.tw/ch/news/6076
English: https://www.sinica.edu.tw/en/news/6076
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