🌻這星期, 比較引起我注意的就是這幾個新聞了
☘️美國支付公司PayPal(PYPL)宣布,將以3000億日圓(27億美元)收購日本新創公司Paidy,以強化自家「先買後付」(BNPL)產品。
熟悉美股的讀者, 應該對BNPL不陌生了. PayPal這舉動, 其實也強化了跟Amazon的關係:
(from Morgan Stanley)
Provides potential for initial relationship with AMZN in Japan: We think the deal is most notable for giving PYPL its first entry into AMZN's large ecosystem, which PYPL has been trying to gain access to for some time. Paidy began providing BNPL services for AMZN in Japan in November 2019, and after the deal closes, PYPL should have a clear path to eventually sell some of its other core services to AMZN in Japan.
☘️lululemon(LULU)昨天(台灣周四凌晨)發表財報了, 股價跳漲10.47%.
Morgan Stanley:
We highlight margin expansion as particularly impressive against 1) higher eCommerce penetration, which has historically resulted in EBIT margin degradation for many other specialty retail peers, 2) the acquisition of MIRROR, which has not yet achieved profitability, & 3) already best-in-class historical operating margin levels. While some macro factors like lean industry-wide inventory levels may be partially supporting these results, in our view they point to a higher & more profitable growth trajectory for the business compared to the outlook pre-Covid. As such, though LULU’s P/E multiple sits at 46x, above the high end of its pre-Covid 18-41x range, we view current levels as merited against higher future growth & profitability. In our view, this may represent a more permanent valuation re-rating for LULU, & the stock likely continues to trade at elevated levels until results prove otherwise.
🌻Alphabet(GOOGL)今年的表現為什麼那麼亮眼?
今年最會漲的FAANG個股之一, 就是GOOGL了. 如果有在follow這家公司的讀者, 應該有發現他們的營收結構跟過去幾年很不一樣了(可以看下面的表格). YouTube以及Cloud業務成為新的營收成長動能.
Picture: 畫 from National Gallery of Art; 自製的GOOGL簡單營收分類表.
「path財報」的推薦目錄:
- 關於path財報 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於path財報 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於path財報 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於path財報 在 path股價2023-在Facebook/IG/Youtube上的焦點新聞和熱門 ... 的評價
- 關於path財報 在 path股價2023-在Facebook/IG/Youtube上的焦點新聞和熱門 ... 的評價
- 關於path財報 在 UiPath(PATH)终于改变基本面担忧痛点财报大涨后股价还有更 ... 的評價
- 關於path財報 在 Quantitative_investment_materia... 的評價
- 關於path財報 在 博客來-矽谷創業家教你看懂新經濟公司財報:搞懂Facebook ... 的評價
- 關於path財報 在 高醫事人員之薪資酬勞,顯然有助 - Facebook - 登录或注册 的評價
- 關於path財報 在 path stock的情報與評價,CNYES、YOUTUBE、MONEYDJ 的評價
path財報 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻,初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示,在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%,市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金,以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者,都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊,他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場,所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上,SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元,高於一年前的約1,000億美元,反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此,今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠,扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域,其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡,一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環,因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價,投資者就更有可能這樣做,而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前,在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中,超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少,讓其更難實現業務目標,並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
path財報 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
🌻
附上本周發表財報的公司一覽表(周一為勞動節, 股市休息. FYI.)
🌻
讀書筆記: 閃電擴張
因為對雲端產業以及電商產業是如何(快速地)達到網絡效應, 很有興趣了解, 所以看了這本書. 雖然這本書鎖定的讀者對象主要為創業人, 但我還是非常推薦(已經有中文版本.) 作者是鼎鼎大名的LinkedIn創辦人之一Reid Hoffman.
(註: 若對這主題有興趣的話, 也可以看看爆炸型成長那本書 (這本書我也看了, 不過還沒有時間做整理.)
筆記在這裡:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/09/blitzscaling-lightning-fast-path-to.html
中文書在博客來的網址: https://www.books.com.tw/products/0010825216
(赫然發現, 書的譯者跟我還有點淵源呢....what a small world.)
書中提到的一些的好文章, 我也找了一下. 下面是連結.
作者在Stanford的授課資訊:
Blitzscaling: A Free Stanford Course on Scaling a Startup, Led by LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman
http://www.openculture.com/2017/06/blitzscaling-a-free-stanford-course-on-scaling-a-startup-led-by-linkedins-reid-hoffman.html
過去課程的影片有在YouTube上:
https://bit.ly/2F6oeXE
作者自己有個podcast: https://mastersofscale.com/
“The only thing that matters” by Marc Andreessen
https://pmarchive.com/guide_to_startups_part4.html
All Revenue is Not Created Equal: The Keys to the 10X Revenue Club
http://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all-revenue-is-not-created-equal-the-keys-to-the-10x-revenue-club/
麥肯錫: Grow Fast or Die Slow
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/technology-media-and-telecommunications/our-insights/grow-fast-or-die-slow
🌻
Veeva(VEEV)的財報結果整理已經好了.
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/veeva-systems-veev.html
🌻
Oh no........Tesla竟然沒有被納入S&P500........😟
這次被納入S&P500的公司之一, 是以前看過的Etsy. 當時覺得它定位超強, 但那時候市場很多noise(有負面新聞), 而Amazon那時候也有打算切入. 所以現在想想, 有時候挑股, 真的是要follow your heart.
Anyways. 以前寫過的Etsy文章在這裡. 有興趣的可以看看:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/etc-etsycom-etsy.html
"根據標普道瓊指數公司,這次重新權衡指數後納入三檔股票,分別是網路零售商 Etsy(ETSY-US)、醫療技術公司 Catalent(CTLY-US)、半導體製造商 Teradyne(TER-US),並剔除 H&R Block(HRB-US)、Coty (COTY-US) 和 Kohl’s(KSS-US),預定 9 月 21 日生效。"
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4521259
🌻🌻
花木蘭, 是我很喜歡的故事之一.
或許因為是長女, 家也無男丁, 加上自己不是個傳統女生, 所以挺能夠了解木蘭的心情與作為. 或許跟木蘭一樣, 遠征(出國念書), 甚至後來因緣際會地留下來, 也是想藉著一段旅程, 來更認識自己吧.
Anyways. 眾所矚目的Disney影片”Mulan”已經透過影音串流平台先上映了. 在此分享中西兩位唱將的影片:
Mulan主題曲"Reflection":
李玟: https://youtu.be/lcqWFDh_3es
Christina Aguilera: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNprQYHenNI
不知道有人看過電影了沒? 想聽聽看心得.
Pictures: YouTube, Earningswhispers, 博客來
path財報 在 path股價2023-在Facebook/IG/Youtube上的焦點新聞和熱門 ... 的推薦與評價
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path財報 在 path股價2023-在Facebook/IG/Youtube上的焦點新聞和熱門 ... 的推薦與評價
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