Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?|Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
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capital media studies 在 方志恒 Brian Fong Facebook 的最佳貼文
【#新聞點評】北京在香港布置的代理人網絡,以香港地產資本最為權重。此所以中資數十年都不涉足地產,直至梁振英時期(2012-2017),中資才高調買地。如今中資陸續撤離香港地產巿場,背後既有中國經濟崩盤的脈絡,也許亦涉及中港資本的互動。北京與在地代理人之關係,從來並非簡單的上下級關係,而需要細心梳理和研究。無論如何,中美新冷戰所引發的地緣政治變化,正多方面牽動香港政局。
Within Beijing's local collaborator network in Hong Kong, real estate capital is the most important faction. That's why for decades the Chinese capital did not go into property market and only step in under Leung Chun-ying administration (2012-2017). While the recent withdrawal of the Chinese capital from Hong Kong's property market should be understood in the context of China's economy burst, it may reflects the dynamics of China-Hong Kong capitals. Beijing's relations with its local collaborators should not be simply seen as superior-subordinate relations, and we need more sophisticated studies on this issue. In any case, it is clear that the geo-political changes as driven by US-China New Cold War are transforming Hong Kong on different aspects.
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Hong Kong is at the forefront of China’s influences/Brian C. H. Fong
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#中資 #港資 #代理人 #地產 #海航 #中美新冷戰 #地緣政治
#HNA #NewColdWar #Geopolitics
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capital media studies 在 人山人海 PMPS Music Facebook 的精選貼文
音樂節是未來的大趨勢,你可會是台上的player?
9月14日(三)晚上的搶耳國際論壇,美國三藩市、新加坡、中國大陸的三大音樂節主事人,齊齊向你發出邀請;搶耳的6個音樂單位,也請你來看他們的現場演出。。。
如果你還不認識他們,不要緊,下面有三位嘉賓的詳細介紹。
14 Sep 2016 (Wed)
18:30-19:30【搶耳展演 Ear Up Music Showcase】
表演單位 Performers
Linda Chow 周華欣/ 張菀桐 Karmen Cheung/ TikChi 迪子/ JLMusic
19:30-21:30 【論壇 Forum 3】
主題 Topic
音樂節與國際音樂演出生態
Music festivals and the international booking circuit
主持 Moderator
龔志成 Kung Chi Shing
講者 Speakers
沈黎暉 Shen Li Hui (中國內地 Mainland China) | 草莓音樂節 Strawberry Music Festival
周紫靜 Cecilia Chow (新加坡 Singapore) | Baybeats Music Festival
Dawson Ludwig (美國 U.S.) | Noise Pop Music Festival
21:30-22:30【搶耳展演 Ear Up Music Showcase】
表演單位 Performers
The Sulis Club/ EMPTY HK/ Le Pasha
登記留座:https://docs.google.com/…/1QXcMKGPY03_ZNvrYnKfkVG…/viewform…
Cecilia Chow , Music programmer at Baybeats music festival
Cecilia Chow is a music programmer at Esplanade – Theatres on the Bay who leads the Baybeats music festival and the daily Free Performances music series. Trained in multimedia and film studies, Cecilia started her journey in performing arts as a backstage volunteer. She has since been involved in several music presentations and various creative multidisciplinary productions, including the 2007 Singapore President Design Award-winning 0501 by The Finger Players.
Currently in its 15th year, Baybeats is an annual free alternative music festival in Southeast Asia. Showcasing Singapore and international acts, Baybeats presents a fist-pumping line-up across music genres including indie, folk, metal, post-rock, punk, electro and everything in between. The festival’s Budding initiative gathers aspiring home-grown talent who are mentored by leading industry experts in music, music journalism, gig photography and video arts.
Cecilia Chow
新加坡 Baybeats 音樂節 – 音樂策劃人
Cecilia Chow為濱海藝術中心的音樂策劃人,負責策劃Baybeats 音樂節及濱海藝術中心的免費音樂演出。Chow在學時主修多媒體及電影,畢業後義務擔任舞台後台工作,展開其演藝生涯。她曾參與的音樂及多媒體演出製作,包括劇團十指幫(The Finger Players)獲得2007年度總統設計大獎的作品《0501》。
Baybeats是新加坡一年一度的免費搖滾音樂節,本年已踏入第十五個年頭,每年邀請新加坡本地以及世界各地風格多元的樂團演出。音樂節的Budding Bands嚮導計劃,邀請音樂工業的翹楚,包括音樂人、音樂記者、攝影師等,指導具備潛質的本地音樂人,傳授他們在行業的心得。
Dawson Ludwig, General Manager at Noise Pop industries
Dawson Ludwig is the General Manager of Noise Pop Industries, a Bay Area based events and marketing company responsible for Treasure Island Music Festival, Noise Pop Festival, Swedish American Hall and DoTheBay.com. Dawson began his career in the music industry as a radio promoter for the New York based independent label Organic Ent. (Billy Harvey) and then for the London based label One Little Indian (Bjork). He moved to San Francisco in 2009 where he began working with Noise Pop as their marketing director. He helped expand the Noise Pop brand by launching website DoTheBay, part of the DoStuff Media Network. In 2014 Dawson became a partner in Noise Pop, taking on the General Manager role. Since taking the lead at Noise Pop he’s helped grow the existing Noise Pop properties: Treasure Island and Noise Pop Festival. He’s also helped launch new properties including Swedish American Hall, 20th St.Block Party and the Noise Pop Podcast.
Dawson Ludwig
Noise Pop Industries總經理
Dawson Ludwig是Noise Pop Industries的總經理。位於三藩市灣區的活動策劃及推廣公司Noise Pop Industries,旗下項目包括Treasure Island Music Festival、Noise Pop Festival、Swedish American Hall及 DoTheBay.com。Dawson Ludwig於音樂工業生涯之初,分別為紐約獨立廠牌Organic Ent. (旗下藝人包括Billy Harvey)及倫敦獨立廠牌One Little Indian (旗下藝人包括Bjork)擔任電台宣傳人員。他於2009年移居三藩市,出任Noise Pop的市場推廣部主管。他在DoStuff Media Network旗下開發網站DoTheBay,成功拓展Noise Pop的品牌形象。他於2014年成為Noise Pop的合伙人並出任總經理。他於上任後繼續開拓Treasure Island Music Festival、Noise Pop Festival等的發展,並開展Swedish American Hall、20th St.Block Party及Noise Pop Podcast等新項目。
Shen Lihui, owner and founder of Modern Sky Entertainment
Shen Lihui, the founder of Modern Sky Entertainment, Ltd., which is the most celebrated new music brand in China, vocal of Sober band, and he is also a record producer.
He has found Modern Sky in 1997, and soon released the first album of his own band, Sober. With a sharp eye of original music and independent music market, he scouted loads of independent musicians, including New Pants, Supermarket, XTX, Song Dongye, Ma Di, Second Hand Rose, Miserable Faith, and Maggie Cheung, who represent the full potential of Chinese independent music of the time. As the largest independent record label in China, Modern Sky Records now has more than 200 releases and 40 artists, since founded in 1997.
As the largest music festival operator in China, Modern Sky held Modern Sky Music Festival, Strawberry Music Festival, Greenfest Music Festival, 500 KM Music Festival Kunming and other large-scale outdoor music festivals. In 2014, Modern Sky Music Festival has been towards New York City, which marked the international recognition of
Modern Sky. And in 2015, Modern Sky Music Festival will be held in Helsinki Finland, New York City and Seattle in America.
Plus, Modern Sky has been continuing the expansion of its business landscape. Recently, it shows ambition in three field, Internet, venue operating and artist tour. In 2014, Modern Sky poured capital injection into Pogo App, served music festival audience in ticketing, information requiring, tips and other aspects. Now Pogo App is a very integrated service application tailor-made for music festival in China. In 2005, Modern Sky introduced Modern Sky Now, which is a leading O2O online living- broadcasting platform, focusing on music festival as their core contents.
In the same year, Modern Sky founded Modern Sky Lab in Beijing, which is its first physical art center. And then, it claimed that a brand-new model of artists’ tour will happen in theater. It’s not that large as gym, but with a good potential to improve sound and lighting comparing to live-house. Modern Sky Entertainment, Ltd. now does artists agent, record production and release, music event sponsorship and production, outdoor festivals, artists’ tours, art center and online issues. There’s no doubt that these steps contributed to Modern Sky’s leading statement in China.
沈黎暉
摩登天空創辦人
摩登天空創辦人、樂隊「清醒」的主音歌手、唱片製作人。沈氏於1997年創辦摩登天空,隨即為個人樂隊「清醒」推出唱片。憑藉銳利的音樂觸覺,沈氏先後發掘了新褲子、超級市場、謝天笑、宋冬野、馬頔、二手玫瑰、痛仰、張曼玉等於中國獨立音樂舉足輕重名字。目前摩登天空旗下擁有四十餘組樂隊及藝人,迄今出品逾200張。摩登天空現為中國最大型的音樂節主辦單位,舉辦摩登天空音樂節、草莓音樂節、樂堡綠放音樂節、五百里城市音樂節,以及其他多個大型音樂活動。2014年,摩登天空音樂節首度登陸美國紐約,翌年先後在芬蘭赫爾辛基、美國紐約及西雅圖舉行,見證了品牌在國際音樂圈的發展。
摩登天空近年持續擴展業務,尤其針對互聯網、場地及巡演三大範疇。摩登天空於2014年注資「Pogo看演出」APP,提供音樂演出票務、客戶服務、演出資訊等。「Pogo看演出」現為內地音樂節的專用APP。2015年成立O2O平臺「正在視頻」,以直播音樂節演出為主要內容。同年於北京成立Modern Sky Lab藝術中心,銳意提供具備專業質素的中、小型音樂演出。