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中國大型地產集團面臨債務違約，倒閉與否對市場的衝擊有多大?
我們從幾個月前就在跟大家分享中國高收益債的問題
不過近一個月以來從地產延燒到金融相關
更重要的是目前似乎已經準備要進入違約的階段
如果中國政府真的不介入，讓這些債務直接進入清算
很可能會讓整個房地產業與銀行業受到重創
後續股市與整個高收益債市場都會有影響
分享一篇彭博社的專文
介紹幾個可能會出現的狀況以及風險
大家可以參考看看
有機會我也會解析分享大家
網址是
Today, I hosted an event, or rather a meeting which is very different and unique in nature compared to the other gigs I've previously done.
It is also the first time I got boo'ed by an emotional crowd for merely doing my job in getting the message across! 😬
15 years ago, some people were lured into buying properties built by an unscrupulous developer.
The developer failed to deliver on its promise, wrapped up and left before the completion of the project, leaving the buyers in debt, distressed and frustrated.
After 15 years of unresolved issues, a white knight stepped in to offer a solution, whereby a proposed scheme was offered, and the owners were given the option to vote in favour of or against it (something like an election but in a much smaller scale)
Interesting how things went down! Truly an eye opening experience for me 😎
#Host
#Emcee
Pelaburan saham adalah perniagaan. Pemilihan syarikat yg betul adalah faktor penting sebelum pelaburan dilakukan. Salah membuat pilihan maka ianya menjadi 'peleburan'. Selamat Melabur!!
[TOP WARNING SIGNALS THIS COMPANY WILL SURELY GO BANKRUPT BY DR. NAZRI KHAN]
Will MAS go into bankruptcy?
Transmile, Kenmark, Megan Media, Ekran, Linear Corp, Scan Associates, Golden Plus, Dis Technology, Welli Multi and of course Renong Berhad. All are distressed public listed companies which have disappeared.
Will Malaysia Airlines join them ? Good question. Maybe and maybe not.
My sixteen years experience shows that companies rarely go into bankruptcy without some warning. The following are the BEST TOP WARNING SIGNALS which will tell us 99% they are going under. Beware & Stay Away.
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Danger Sign No. 1 : Management Scandal. Leaders keep changing.
A serious warning if top guys CEO or CFO take flight suddenly without explanation or give stupid reason such as personal commitement or personal health reason.
Danger Sign No. 2 : A History of Financial Restatements or Late Filings.
Late financial reporting and accounting restatements normally are associated with bad management integity. This was especially characteristic of companies engaging in complex accounting to sweep losses under the rugs and hide liabilities just to drive stock prices higher.
Danger Sign No. 3 : Faster Growth in Accounts Receivable With Flat Growth of Sales.
Faster growth of receivables than growth of sales. The balance sheet is full of rubbish sales with no cash to accrue. Bad companies have serious bad debts, rising receivables and credit downgrade.
Danger Sign No. 4 : Mysterious Growth In Inventories.
Unexpected bumps in inventories relative to sales. Growing inventories could signal a weak customer base, or worse, that the company use suspicious creative accounting to boost value of inventories to offset declining sales.
Danger Sign No. 5 : Mysteriously Bad Cash Flow With Strong Profits And Sales.
Cash flows is the most transparent and is extremely difficult for management to abuse. Bad cash flow normally suggest complex liquidity and smells trouble for the company. If net income is increasing at a faster clip than cash flow, beware. If earnings are rising year to year and cash flow is not, danger! Either way, something’s not right.
Danger Sign No. 6 : Frequent Change Bank Lender And Swim With Loan Sharks.
A company's relationship with its bank and any changes therein is also a useful financial signal. Reduced availability on a company credit line or a frequent change in borrowing patterns may be indicative of financial problems. Increase in loan security and unsecured loan from no-brand-lender are clear evidence of deterioration in the financial health of a business. Finally, the breaching of loan covenants or missed loan payments are clear warning signs that the company requires help.
Danger Sign No. 7 : Three Years Combo Of Sustain Operational Losses And Decline In Sales.
A sustained decline in sales, poor profit margins, losses, increased debt, a highly leveraged balance sheet and negative working capital over twelve straight quarters may be the best cancer signals of a serious financial distress.
Danger Sign No 8 : A Series Of Bad Lucks In A Row
Companies face so many highly improbabale one-time events back-to-back such as a warranty claim, the cancellation of a large order, a huge union strike, an adhoc special operational audit, a sudden uninsured fire or theft, a sudden departure of supplier or a serious change in supplier payments. A failure to explain this event may be some creative accounting management is using to cover operational losses.
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Hall Of Fame :
1. Transmile Group Berhad
Recorded a net loss of RM369.56 million and overstated its consolidated revenues by RM 530 million in 2005 after a special audit was conducted.
2. Kenmark Industrial Berhad
Fail to issue the fourth-quarter results 2010 for three months. Operations stopped while two banks demanded RM73 million. Became a PN17 company and shares tumbled 80 per cent.
3. Megan Media Holdings Berhad
Posted a mind-boggling net loss of RM1.14 billion for the fourth quarter ended April 30, 2007. Investigated by the Securities Commission, and found to have defaulted RM893.97mil in maturing banking facilities.
4. Ekran Berhad
Magnificent rise in 1990s corporate Malaysia but only to hit a peak months after it had been awarded the contract for the multi-billion ringgit Bakun hydroelectric dam project. Defaulted loan payments and was categorised as a PN1 and PN17 company for at least four years before delisted from Bursa Malaysia.
5. Linear Corp Berhad
A cooling systems company that has landed itself into a PN17 company after being investigated by Bursa Malaysia and the Securities Commission over its troubled RM1.6bil King Dome project in Manjung, Perak.
6. SCAN Associates Berhad
The board of directors lodged a police report and then dismissed CEO following an alleged misappropriation of near RM2 million funds.
7. Golden Plus Holdings Berhad
Failed to submit its audited accounts and annual report for 2007 and its quarterly report for the period ended March 2008 before being reprimanded by SC.
8. DIS Technology Holdings Berhad
Found to misstate several quarterly reports due to an alleged employee fraud worth RM80 mil reported by a major customer based in Hong Kong.
9. WELLI Multi Corp Berhad
Managing director were convicted for furnishing the Securities Commission with misleading fictitious sales information of RM141 million in its audited 2005 financial statement.
10. Renong Berhad
The deal involving United Engineers (M) Bhd’s (UEM) mysterious put option with a total cost of RM2.34bil from an unknown sellers which later expired with no settlement. The CEO later resigned from the group in October 2001 and later sues government for a sour business deal.
My dedication to all investors of these companies. Hope we learn something.
- DR. MOHD NAZRI KHAN
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