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สรุปภาพรวม เศรษฐกิจ ภาคอีสาน /โดย ลงทุนแมน
ภาคตะวันออกเฉียงเหนือ หรือ “ภาคอีสาน”
เป็นภูมิภาคที่มีพื้นที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในประเทศไทย
และเป็นภูมิภาคที่มีจำนวนประชากรมากที่สุดของประเทศ
เลยทำให้ภาคอีสาน เป็นภูมิภาคที่สำคัญที่สุด ภูมิภาคหนึ่งของประเทศไทย
...Continue ReadingSummary of Northeastern Economy / Investment Man
North East or ′′ Northeast ′′
The region with the largest area in Thailand.
And the most populous region of the country
That's why the Northeastern region is the most important region of Thailand.

But did you know that the Northeastern region has GDP proportion of less than 10 % of GDP Thailand..

What about today's economic overview of the Northeastern region?
Investment man will tell you about it.
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First let's get to know the Northeastern region first.

Northeast or Northeast
There are over 168,854 square kilometers.
It's about 1 in 3 of Thailand's area.
Which if we compare the northeastern region to country.
Will be 200 times bigger than Singapore

Currently, the Northeastern region has an estimated population of 22 million people.
Almost 1 in 3 of the population of Thailand.
Just the northeastern region of Thailand, one sector has the same population as Cambodia and Laos all over the country.

Enough is like this if we look in terms of size, area and population.
I will see that the Northeastern region is important to Thailand.

Over the past ten years.
Economy of the Northeastern region has high expansion compared to other regions.
Rising the proportion of poor people in the Northeastern region quickly.
And also the economic structures of the Northeastern region start to change.
From farming farming, farming, it's changed to more economic outside the farming sector.

However, even the economy of the Northeastern region
There will be continued growth in the past.
But the economic value of this place still has low proportion.
Compared to Thailand's economic value.

In 2561, consolidated product value for provinces in the Northeastern region.
Aka GPP (Gross Provincial Product) is worth 1.5 trillion baht.
The value in this part is not 10 % of the GDP of Thailand's GDP, the whole country is around 17 trillion baht.

While the average per capita income of the Northeastern population is 84,000 baht per year, the least in the 6 regions of Thailand. Interesting is this number is less than the average income per capita. The population of Laos is 85,000 baht per year. ..

And compared to the average income per capita, the Thai population equals 236,000 baht.
You will see that the average income per capita population is less than the average income per capita. The Thai population is almost 3 times more.

One more interesting thing is
Even the most populous region
But it's a sector that has physician proportion to very small population, compared to Thailand's average.

population proportion to 1 doctors in 2561
Thailand has a population of 1,868 people per 1 doctors.
The Northeastern region has a proportion of population of 2,725 people per 1 doctors.

In terms of tourism sector
Even in the Northeastern region, there are many landmark attractions.
Not much money to make from travel
In 2562, the Northeastern region has 100,000 million Baht tourism income, which is proportionate to only 3 % of Thailand's tourism income.

Another interesting story is
The wealth of the Northeastern people is in 4 provinces which are called ′′ Big Four of Isan
Which consists of
1. Nakhon Ratchasima has an economic size of 296,000 million baht
2. Khon Kaen has economic size equal to 211,200 million Baht.
3. Ubon Ratchathani. Economic size is equal to 124,200 million Baht
4. Udon Thani has an economic size of 111,600 million baht.

I will see that 4 provinces are coming.
There is a combined economic value of over 743,000 million Baht.
Or nearly 50 % of the economic value of the Northeastern region.

Prosperity in the Northeastern region that clusters just a few provinces
cause the problem that follows is
Labor from the province in the northeastern region.
Must travel to work in 4 such wealthy provinces.
And some may move into a job in Bangkok for a better life opportunity.

When this happens, it makes the economy in the overview of the Northeastern region not driven to spread to each area as well.

From what you say, we will see.
Northeastern region has many advantages.
The whole matter of labour more than other regions
There are areas adjacent to neighbouring countries in Laos and Cambodia that are suitable for regional trade and border investment.

A major problem right now
How to make the northeastern economy grow even more.
And how to make Northeastern people a thoroughly better living.
At the end, if the Northeastern region has a better economy, it will make the whole Thailand economy better, according to direct and indirect..
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References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isan
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand
-https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=5628&filename=gross_regional
-https://www.car.chula.ac.th/display7.php?bib=b2156772
-https://www.creativethailand.org/article/thinktank/32362/th#the-new-isan
-http://social.nesdc.go.th/SocialStat/StatReport_FullScreen.aspx?reportid=304&template=1R2C&yeartype=M&subcatid=18
-https://mots.go.th/more_news_new.php?cid=411Translated

ทำไม มาตรการ QE ของสหรัฐ ไม่ทำให้เกิดเงินเฟ้อ ขั้นรุนแรง /โดย ลงทุนแมน
Quantitative Easing หรือที่เรียกสั้นๆ ว่า QE
คือเครื่องมือหนึ่ง ที่ธนาคารกลาง ใช้ในการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ
โดยการอัดฉีดเงิน เพื่อเพิ่มสภาพคล่องให้ระบบเศรษฐกิจ ในภาวะเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัว
...Continue ReadingWhy U.S. QE measures don't cause severe inflation / by investman
Quantitative Easing aka QE
Is one tool that central banks use to stimulate the economy.
By pumping money to increase liquidity for the economic system in slowing economic progress.

But the result that many people worry about is.
Amount of money will rise in the economic system which will bring inflation.
And may be severe to severe inflation aka ′′ Hyperinflation

We have seen many countries do QE hard.
Will this lead to severe inflation in the future?
Investing man will try to analyse it.
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First, let's understand the meaning of Hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation is a condition where product prices rise quickly.
Makes the country's money value go down dramatically

Why the value of money goes down
As a result, lots and lots of money flowing into the economy.
Compared to the same amount of goods and services in the economic system.
Price increases product prices quickly

An example of past severe Hyperinflation incident.
Such as in Hungary and Venezuela

Hyperinflation in Hungary happened in 1946
During that time, Hungary was heavily damaged by WWI.
Especially various infrastructure systems.

The Hungarian Government has shortage of budgets in economic revival.
So I decided to print a lot of money to repair the city's home and stimulate the economy.
Making money in Hungary's system is increasing tremendously.

As much as the amount of money increases, the domestic products are still the same.
So it makes inflation rise quickly
Hungary average product prices increase to 2 times in 15 hours.
By the moment of Hyperinflation
Hungary inflation rate rises to 150,000 % within one day.

Venezuela part of year 2019
Venezuelan inflation rises to 10,000,000

The cause of this story is similar to the case of Hungary
Well there is excessive economic system injection
Both to stimulate a slowing economy from low petrol prices.
Including to use for government's populist policies

We'll see that all 2 events have one thing in common.
Well there is a huge economic system injection.
Which leads to hyperinflation

Back at present COVID crisis-19
Many countries have measures to stimulate the economy.
With lots of money pumping into the economic system

US Central Bank
Using unlimited amount of QE measures
From the original designated price of about 22 trillion baht per year.

Central Bank of Japan
It's another country that uses unlimited amount of QE measures.
From the original designated, about 24 trillion baht per year.

European Central Bank announces more projects
In acquisition of emergency assets worth over 27 trillion baht.

It will see that many countries are now pumping a lot of money into the system.
And in many countries, I used to do heavy QE before.

For example, the case of the USA.
There has been a lot of money pumping into the economic system in the past 10 years.
Since the 2008 US Real Estate Bubble crisis.

Interesting is that US inflation rates aren't adjusted to much higher like the cases of Hungary and Venezuela.
2010 US average inflation rate equates to 1.6 %
2019 US average inflation rate equates to 1.8 %

Japan is another country where xỳāng h̄nạk measures are taken.
But inflation is still at low near 0 % as well.

Why is the story like this?

This phenomenon is partly because
US and Japan central banks make QE through asset purchases.
Both bonds, shares, loan from commercial banks.
And commercial banks are responsible for re-releasing money into the economy.

But what happens is that commercial banks don't forward the money they get from central banks.
To the business and household sector as everyone thought at first.

The cause is because during economic recession or slowdown.
Household sector tends to save money rather than bring money to spend.
Due to insecure future economic

For example, in USA.
The deposit amount in the COVID-19 pre-birth system is around 416 trillion baht.
But when COVID-19 goes viral, deposits in the system increase to almost 500 trillion baht.
Within just a few months

Meanwhile, a bad economic situation.
Making selling business sector products and services difficult.
Making production and service still very much available.
Business sector may not require a loan to expand business.

Enough demand for products and services doesn't increase higher.
Well, things don't go much higher.
Even with lots of money in the system

Another point is.
Countries with large economies like USA and Japan
Own the world's main currency with high credibility.
Most people still believe and still demand to hold these currency.

In conclusion, if you ask for QE making of big countries today.
Will it lead to severe inflation in the future?
I have to say that this problem can be difficult for big countries like USA and Japan.

But the point is, this plague crisis doesn't know when it ends.
And countries inject money log in
For a country which is economically stable as a big country, it might be careful.
Because those countries may have severe inflation, different from this case..
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References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
-https://nomadcapitalist.com/2014/04/20/top-5-worst-cases-hyperinflation-history/
-https://www.businessinsider.com/hungarys-hyperinflation-story-2014-4
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Venezuela
-https://www.thestreet.com/investing/federal-reserve-unveils-unlimited-qe-to-confront-coronavirus
-https://www.schroders.com/en/bm/asset-management/insights/economic-views/bank-of-japan-ramps-up-qe-again-amid-dismal-outlook/
-https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
-https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/inflation/core-consumer-prices-hold-steady-in-june-in-annual-terms
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202006_eurosystemstaff~7628a8cf43.en.html#toc3
-https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2900/inflation/inflation-and-quantitative-easing/
-https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOGTranslated

Cathay Pacific สายการบินที่ซวย 3 เด้ง /โดย ลงทุนแมน
สายการบิน ธุรกิจหนึ่งที่ต้องรับแรงกระแทกอย่างหนัก
จากการระบาดไปทั่วโลกของโควิด-19

เครื่องบินทั่วโลกเกินกว่า 70% ไม่ได้ขึ้นบิน...
Continue ReadingCathay Pacific. Unlucky Airline 3 Bounce / By Investing Man
One business airline that has to take a heavy impact.
From Covid-19 global outbreak

More than 70 % of global airplanes don't fly
Make many airlines stop paying or stop hiring employees.
Or somewhere heavy to go bankrupt

But did you know that there is an airline that has been through many things before Covid-19 has gone viral?
This airline is called ′′ Cathay Pacific ′′

What story is this airline going through
Investing man will tell you about it.
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cuddle Update the situation and economic situation with Blockdit
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Cathay Pacific, known as Hong Kong National Airline.
Cargo (Cargo) has airline and cargo route covered in over 60 countries around the world.

So what's good for this airline?

Cathay Pacific awarded excellent airline from Skytrax ranking to 4 years.
Well in July. Fri 2003, 2005, 2009 and 2014

And also Asia's number 3 cargo (cargo) airline.
Just an Emirates Airlines and Qatar Airways

And Hong Kong is the key point of one world trade.
So it makes Cathay Pacific more important as Hong Kong national airline.

But who would have thought that bad luck would come together until 3 bounce..

Bouncing at 1

Massive protest against the P.O. The school. B.E. Extradition in Hong Kong early June 2019
Make Hong Kong into an unsafe and unattractive area of travelers, businessmen from around the world.

That's not enough
Cathay Pacific is also targeting Hong Kong people.
When the airline fired Hong Kong protests
So that there is a trend of ′′ ban ′′ Cathay Pacific of Hong Kong people.

Make it in 2019
The number of passengers of the airline decreased from the previous year 10 %
Specifically, the flight between Hong Kong and China mainland, the number of passengers decreased by 26 %
And the flight between Hong Kong and North America, the number of passengers decreased by 7.5 %

Bouncing at 2

The trade war between US and China began in June of 2019 as well.
Cause tensions in world trade

Especially Hong Kong which is a major trade center of Asia and the world.
Resulting in revenue from 2019's Air Cargo (Cargo) services reduced by 16 %

Cathay Pacific results after heavy monsoon in half a year.
Year 2018 Cathay Pacific earn 443,400 million Baht. Profit of 11,000 million Baht.
Year 2019 Cathay Pacific earn 427,000 million Baht. Profit of 6,700 million Baht.

And bouncing the 3th more severe than ever

When Covid-19 global outbreak occurred.
Most of the passengers who used to use the service are gone.

Air shipping proceeds go down from the producing chain with problems.
Make Cathay Pacific the original place weak and collapsed heavily.

Finally, when the bad luck 3 bounces together.
Cathay Pacific can't go on
The company must announce the capital increase and negotiate for government to come to aid.
So that Hong Kong government has to inject 120,000 million baht to use to restructure the company.
There are 2 government people going into board management.

I don't know if this will make Cathay Pacific survive this incident.
But all of this makes us see
If we have to encounter unexpected events, aka ′′ Black Swan ′′
A luxurious success in the past couldn't help anything.

Exactly what Cathay Pacific is facing right now
No matter how good we are, we always have a bad chance.
But what you should do is not blame fate.
Lend a hand for the bad luck that happened and slowly solved one by one.
No matter how unlucky we are, we will get through it eventually..
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References
-Cathay Pacific Financial Report 2019
-https://www.cathaypacific.com/
-https://atlas-network.com/cathay-pacific-whacked-by-trade-war-hong-kong-protests/
-https://news.cathaypacific.com/cathay-pacific-group-releases-combined-traffic-figures-for-november-2019
-https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Bailout-of-Hong-Kong-s-Cathay-Pacific-gets-investors-scrutiny
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathay_PacificTranslated