[時事英文] 散戶牛市 🐂💰
Is it investing or just gambling?
這到底是投資還是賭博呢?
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It’s one of the year’s biggest market stories: Mom-and-pop investors have fallen back in love with stocks, lured by free trading apps, a resurgent bull market led by technology companies and a pandemic that has left millions of Americans at home with little to do.
New data show a number of ways in which the individual-trading boom has reshaped the U.S. stock market. Here are five takeaways:
1. mom-and-pop investors 散戶、小型投資者
2. fall in love with 愛上
3. free trading apps 免費交易應用程式
4. resurgent 復興的;再次增長的;再度流行的
5. a bull market 牛市 (當某一市場、行業或金融工具呈上升趨勢時,通常稱之為牛市。)
6. little to do 無事可做
7. reshape 重塑
這是今年最大的市場熱點之一:在免費交易應用程式和科技公司引領的牛市重新抬頭的誘惑下,加上數以百萬計美國人因新冠大流行而在家無所事事,散戶重新愛上了股市。新的數據顯示散戶交易熱潮在多個方面重塑了美國股市。以下是五個要點:
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🐂 1. Individual stock trading is at a decade high 💰
個人股票交易達到了十年來的最高點
Trading by individuals accounts for a greater chunk of market activity than at any time during the past 10 years, according to Larry Tabb, head of market-structure research at Bloomberg Intelligence. During the first six months of this year, individual investors accounted for 19.5% of the shares traded in the U.S stock market, up from 14.9% last year and nearly double the level from 2010, Mr. Tabb estimates.
8. account for (sth) (在數量上)佔 ; 解釋、說明 ; 對...負有責任
9. a chunk of 一部分;(尤指)大部分,一大塊
10. market activity 市場活動
Bloomberg Intelligence市場結構研究主管Larry Tabb表示,個人交易在市場活動中的佔比超過了過去10年的任何時候。Tabb估計,今年前六個月,散戶投資者在美國股市交易量中的佔比為19.5%,高於去年的14.9%,是2010年水平的近兩倍。他的數據沒有進一步向前追溯。
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🐂 2. Small investors are powering big moves in some stocks 💰
小型投資者正在推動一些股票的大幅波動
It has been called the Robinhood effect, the idea that stampedes of investors using the popular app are driving irrational stock moves.
In fact, such activity doesn’t matter much for most stocks, according to Nick Maggiulli, chief operating officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management. But there is evidence of a Robinhood effect in some smaller stocks, he said.
11. power (v.) 為…提供動力,驅動
12. big moves 大幅波動
13. stampede (尤指獸群或人群因恐懼引發的)狂奔;奔逃,蜂擁
(這裡指散戶湧入股市)
14. drive irrational stock moves 驅動非理性股市走勢
這被稱為羅賓漢效應,這種觀點認為,使用這種廣受歡迎的應用程式的投資者紛紛湧入市場,正在推動非理性的股票走勢。
資產管理機構Ritholtz Wealth Management首席營運官Nick Maggiulli表示,事實上,對於大多數股票來說這些活動無關緊要。但他表示,有證據表明,一些較小型股票存在羅賓漢效應。
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🐂 3. Asia is where individual investors truly dominate 💰
在亞洲股市,散戶是真正的主力軍
Many Asian stock markets have traditionally been dominated by individual investors, unlike the institution-heavy U.S. market. In places such as mainland China, frenzied trading by individuals can create a casino-like feel, with exuberant bull runs followed by spectacular crashes.
Individuals often account for more than 80% of volume on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, while on the Korea Exchange’s main Kospi market, nearly 84% of shares traded so far this year were on behalf of individual investors, according to data compiled by Hee-Joon Ahn, a finance professor at Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul.
15. be dominated by 由…所主導
16. individual investors 個人投資者
17. frenzied trading 狂熱交易
18. bull runs 行情
19. on behalf of 代表
20. data that is compiled by 由…整理的數據
不同於以機構投資者為主的美國股市,許多亞洲股市向來由個人投資者所主導。在中國A股等亞洲股市,散戶的狂熱交易會營造出賭場般的感覺,有時股市會牛氣沖天,隨後大幅跳水。
首爾成均館大學(Sungkyunkwan University)金融學教授Hee-Joon Ahn整理的數據顯示,在上海證券交易所,散戶的股票交易量通常佔到80%以上;在韓國證券交易所主要的Kospi市場,今年以來,有近84%的股票交易是代表個人投資者進行的。
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🐂 4. More of the U.S. stock market is going dark 💰
美股暗盤交易量上升
The individual-investing boom has led to historically high levels of “dark” trading, in which stocks are bought and sold on opaque private venues, rather than public exchanges. That is because online brokers typically funnel small investors’ trades to electronic-trading firms that execute the incoming orders.
In July, 43.2% of U.S. stock-trading volume took place off-exchange, according to Rosenblatt Securities, a brokerage firm. That is the highest level that the firm has recorded since it started tracking such data in 2008.
21. investing boom 投資熱潮
22. historically high levels of 歷史高位
23. “dark” trading 暗盤 (暗盤是指大利市機以外的股份交易買賣。 由於當中的買賣並不曝露於大眾之前,不會經證交所披露其中內容,所以這些買賣被稱之為暗盤。)
24. opaque 不透明的;不透光的
25. private venues 非公開場所
26. public exchanges 公開的交投
27. brokerage firm 證券商
個人投資熱潮已經導致股票暗盤交易量達到歷史高位,這種交易指的是股票在不透明的非公開場所買賣,而不是在公開的交易所進行交投。出現這種現象的原因是,在線經紀商通常會將小型投資者的交易單交給執行指令的電子交易公司。
據券商Rosenblatt Securities提供的數據,7月份,美國有43.2%的股票交易量發生在交易所外。這是該公司自2008年開始跟蹤此類數據以來所記錄到的最高水平。
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🐂 5. Big winners may be electronic traders 💰
大贏家可能是電子交易公司
The firms that execute individual investors’ orders have enjoyed surging volumes. The three biggest players in that business—Citadel Securities, Virtu Financial Inc. and Susquehanna International Group LLP—traded a combined 69.4 billion shares over the counter in June, more than triple the level from November, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The vast majority of the firms’ over-the-counter trades come from individual investors. OTC trading is a type of off-exchange trading.
Electronic-trading firms profit from individuals’ trades by collecting a small difference between the buying and selling prices of a stock. It’s hard to know how much money they are making, though, because most are private and don’t report financials.
28. big winners 大贏家
29. surging volumes 交易量大幅上升
30. the biggest players 巨頭 ; 主要參與者;主力
31. according to 根據
32. the vast majority of 絕大多數
33. over-the-counter trades 場外交易 (場外交易是指證券投資機構之間不通過股票交易所,而以電話、電傳等方式相互進行的股票交易。)
為散戶執行交易指令的公司交易量大幅上升。據Bloomberg Intelligence的數據,這一領域的三巨頭是Citadel Securities、Virtu Financial Inc.和海納國際集團(Susquehanna International Group) ,6月份的場外交易總量為694億股,是去年11月的三倍多。這些公司的絕大多數場外交易來自散戶投資者。
電子交易公司通過收取股票買賣之間的微小差價從個人交易中獲利。不過,很難知道這些公司到底賺了多少錢,因為大多數公司都未上市,也不披露財務報告。
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What are some problems this phenomenon might cause? Benefits?
本現象將帶來什麼樣的問題?其利益呢?
《華爾街日報》完整內容:https://on.wsj.com/34TiE5V
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🎓 華爾街日報獎助學金計畫 (A20): https://bit.ly/2C2tUAI
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Thaksin Shinawatra in Private Discussion
World Policy Institute Global Leader Briefing Series Thinking Points
World Policy Institute, 9th March 2016, New York
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Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,
I must thank you World Policy Institute for providing me an opportunity to share my thought on the challenges that revolve around the economic, regional and global implications of how Thailand will make its way through a period of transition and change.
We all know that no society in the twenty-first century can sustain any form of “progress” in the well-being of its people without at least two basic foundations:
The first one is political stability. The second one is the ability to create economic activities that allow growth and readiness to shift its creativities to sustain wealth.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the tale of the two cities, which is not written by Charles Dickens. It is the tale of parallel progress of Washington D.C. and Beijing. Each has its own history, pain and loathing. As the years go by, the two cities have been seen as rivals which offers competing models for growth and prosperity.
One is Free Market-Capitalism with the so-called “Open Democracy” as the foundation of its economic model. The other one is State-Led Capitalism with the central control system by one party.
Both of the models have proven to be successful in a very dramatic way from the past to the present. Admitting that the Chinese model was fitting to the change of attitude among the leadership of the country at that time, in parallel with the change of economic model in the West, in which the definition of “free trade” benefits China’s shifting position from a close market to a semi-open market.
But we must admit also that both models are now having to adjust itself to the new reality; the reality of dramatic change in speed and character of technology for industrial production; the change from “a country-based product” to “network of global design, global sourcing,and global production for just one product”. This extraordinary change upends the “normal” internal economic adjustment of the country and made it very difficult to find a simple economic adjustment.
We must recognize that advancement in the wealth management technique and technology also upend the normal linkage between capital and changes in production. However, we probably agree, that one common threat for survival in this present so-called “New Normal” is either you have the ability and willingness to change or you don’t. Thailand, like the other countries, cannot get away from this New Normal in the international context.
Ladies and Gentleman,
There is a tale of a poor English teacher in China who soared to the list of the world’s wealthiest people. He neither built a big factory nor invested in any production facility. But, people paid for his service simply to reach the network of supply and demand on a grand scale. I believe, he must feel thank you to the internet.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Amid the global economic slowdown, the pattern of trade has significantly changed. Due to the development of information technology infrastructure and increasing number of population who is able to access to the internet, e-commerce has become a new engine that sustains growth for both developed and developing economies. According to UNCTAD’s report last year, the value of global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce in 2013 exceeded $15 trillion USD. While global business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce still accounted for an estimated $1.2 trillion USD, this segment has grown at a rapid pace; especially in the Asia and Oceania region where B2C segment is expected to surge from 20 to 37 percent between 2013 to 2018. Due to the incremental growth of cross-border e-commerce trade, international postal deliveries of small packets and parcels have risen by 48 percent between 2011 to 2014 globally.
For both Asia and the West, I believe these numbers provide us with clues for the new growth opportunities where “access to networks” is the key: meaning, the networks of consumers and factors of production across geographical boundaries. Unlike the economy of twentieth century when “access to centers” is the rules of the game, today, businessmen who do not have big factories and are not the owners of multinational corporations, can manage to reach and satisfy the needs of their customers worldwide through networks of production and distribution with an assist of the new communication technology. Today’s economy is increasingly decentralized. Consumption and production are more and more dispersed. We could imagine that an American producers can sell their products online directly to consumers in the western part of China without having to spend business hours in Beijing or Shanghai. Vice versa, a Chinese producer can bypass New York to offer their products to customers in New England and Mid-Atlantic states. The network economy has provided the people, both in small and large businesses, with the ability to produce and access to consumers at lower costs. We, as a global community, must put special emphasis on how each country can invest and share risk with the people to create growth collectively.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Another tale is about the rebirth of a road that nobody cares since the Portuguese discovered a possible sea route from Europe to Asia. The Portuguese did offer an alternative trade route with substantial margins for the goods carried. Although you might lose half of the cargoes on the way, you still did not lose your shirt. Since the demand for spices were overwhelming, the merchant marines heavily charge everybody.
Ladies and Gentleman,
The heavy-load transport through the sea has been with us till now, and the land routes from Asia to Europe have been neglected. If the world’s economy is thriving like the good old days, probably, not so many people would be interested in finding an alternative in life. But, since the situation goes awry, I believe, any country should consider all possibilities.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today, there are two major initiatives that, I think, have great potential to accelerate growth and leverage “quality of growth” that brought into being by the emergence of network economy. One is the China-led “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to develop transport and logistics connectivity encompassed some 60 countries, which include about 50 percent of the world’s GDP. And, the other is the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries, which account for more than 40 percent of the world’s GDP. I have not seen these two initiatives as antagonistic, but rather a kind of two parallel processes that, at a certain point, will create mutual economic benefits for Asia and the West.
We must overcome the stereotype that perceive China and the US as merely the two opposing political superpowers. In reality, the economic development during the past decade has shown us how far these two major economies are interdependent. China is the largest foreign holder of US government securities with $1.24 trillion USD worth. With the total trade volume of $521 billion USD in 2014, the US is China’s biggest trade partner. Total US foreign direct investment (FDI) in China stood at $65.77 billion USD at the end of 2014, while the Chinese FDI in the US is estimated to have reach $11.9 billion USD.
Given this interdependence in mind, I believe Southeast Asia- the region that sits in between the two great initiatives of the two major economies- must put special emphasis on how to enhance the mutual economic benefits with its counterparts. For Southeast Asia in the twenty-first century, the geopolitics should be about how to reinforce the networks of wealth creation for the people that stretch across national and regional borders.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the last tale about a Thai restaurant. No matter how many times the master chef tries to teach his protege, the young man keeps making mistakes in mixing the ingredients. Customers are kept waiting, hungry and mad. Once the customers are served, half of them get diarrhea afterward. The moral of this tale is one must make the written recipe right.
Ladies and gentlemen,
While some people may underline the unique characteristics of Thailand in terms of its history and developmental path, the country itself cannot avoid to come to terms with the global challenges of the twenty-first century. For half a century, the Thai economy has incrementally integrated into global economy. Values of Thailand’s exports per GDP and FDI in the country have shown us clearly how far the growth of Thai economy has been interwoven with the fate of global economy.
Against this context, we shall consider Thailand’s draft constitution with a very simple question: will the latest draft constitution “enable” the country to grow and become stronger in the present world? Or, will the latest draft constitution provide Thailand with a sufficient institutional infrastructure for investment, production, cooperation, and businesses?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Due to the framework set out by the latest draft constitution, it is difficult to foresee a government that is responsive to the people and the challenges of the twenty-first century. According to the new draft, the 200-seat upper house, or Senate, will be appointed by the so-called “experts”. The Senate will also have greater powers to block legislation. Regarding the Constitutional Court, its scope of jurisdiction will be expanded. The Court will have the power to examine cases based on petitions filed directly by individuals, without the requirement that an actual dispute being brought by political organs or other courts.
If we consider the doctrine of separation of powers as the foundation for growth and stability, the critical issue that we shall examine is whether the judicial power will trespass the provinces of legislature/ and executive or not? For a government to be able to manage the economy against the global slowdown, I do hope that there will be no over-enforcement of the judicial power. Experiences of several countries show us that, if unchecked, judicial review can be inappropriately used as “delaying tactic”; thus, in turn, become an impediment to economic policy implementation.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I believe that the foundation for the country to create growth and prosperity is to build trust in the global community. The constitution shall protect the rule of law and provide at least a minimum level of freedom of speech that facilitates economic cooperation between the people and the global community. Trade and investment cannot flourish if there is no certain degree of confidence provided by the rule of law. Against the transition and change, Thailand must reevaluate its strength and weakness. The country shall find a sensible way to regain its political stability and economic dynamism. I have only proposed the way of how should we think of the phenomena that is the world today.
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